The Texas Longhorns are a national brand. Talking heads in every major network constantly force Texas into their shows. Since Texas has been down as a program, it has been in a negative light. However, now that Texas is looking like a team on the rise, the narrative is changing. The newest talking point: “Can the Texas Longhorns make the college football playoff this season?”
Other Teams Competing
SEC
The South Eastern Conference is consistently referred to as the premier football conference. Since the college football playoffs began in 2013 the SEC has never failed to send at least one team.
Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, and Ole Miss are the remaining undefeated teams in the conference. Alabama and Georgia have been regulars in the CFP and played each other in the national championship game last year. They both will have a solid case to make it again if they meet as undefeated teams in the SEC championship.
Tennessee will have to play both Alabama and Georgia this year. The game against Alabama will be this weekend in Neyland Stadium.
Ole Miss and Georgia will only have to play Alabama and Tennessee out of the remaining unbeaten teams, respectively.
The most likely scenario is Alabama and Georgia meeting in the SEC championship game again, as two undefeated teams. The best case scenario for Texas is for only one of these SEC teams having an undefeated record.
Alabama going undefeated and winning the conference championship would be the best thing for Texas. While Georgia loses to Tennessee in the regular season.
Big Ten
The Big Ten has had a representative in the CFP six out of eight years. Typically thought of by the general public and media networks as a tier below the SEC, but ahead of other Power Five conferences, the Big Ten hosts a few blue blood programs who could compete every year.
This season the only teams that remain unbeaten through six weeks are Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State.
All three of these teams will play each other and will not have a chance at redemption because they’re all in the Big Ten East. In the conference championship, whoever comes out of the East, will play the Big Ten West. Where the Fighting Illini currently reign supreme.
At best only one Big Ten team, whoever wins the conference championship, will make the college football playoffs.
ACC
The ACC has been down in recent years. With Florida State and Miami struggling to turn around their programs, the ACC has been mostly dominated by Dabo Swinney and Clemson.
Florida state was in the inaugural college football playoff, losing to Oregon in the first round as the #3 seed. Since then, the ACC has only been represented by Clemson. Clemson made the college football playoff six times altogether, missing the first season and this past season (2021-2022).
Clemson seems to be the ACC’s only hope again this season. Syracuse is also undefeated, but I do not see them being a true threat as the season goes on. Clemson and Syracuse will play each other later this year as well, so there will definitely only be one undefeated team in the ACC championship, if any at all.
PAC-12
The PAC-12 has beaten up on each other in recent years. Oregon played in the inaugural CFP championship game and lost. Washington made it two years later and lost in the semi-finals. Since then a PAC-12 program has not been apart of the college football playoffs.
USC and UCLA are the last unbeaten teams in the conference. They will play each other before the end of the regular season. Oregon will also be a program who could make the CFP if all goes well. Their only loss this season was week one to Georgia.
Utah is a program with two losses already. However, they still have USC and Oregon on their schedule. They’re a good team and well-coached. Therefore, I could see Kyle Whittingham keep his guys engaged and ready to play “spoiler” for the rest of the season. They also are still fighting for a spot in the PAC-12 championship, so it isn’t a completely lost season for the Utes.
The Case For Texas
Obviously, for Texas to even have a shred of a chance to make the college football playoffs, they will have to win out in the Big 12 and win the conference championship. Therefore, there’s no reason to talk about any other Big XII team as potential CFP options.
Texas is undoubtedly behind the 8-ball. The loss against Alabama would be negligible come the end of the season if that was their only loss. The loss to Texas Tech in Lubbock will be the only reason Texas doesn’t make it to the playoffs in 2022, if they win-out.
There has never been a two loss team who has made it to the college football playoff. Texas losing their superstar quarterback, for seven out of eight quarters of their losses, is a great excuse as to why they lost and perhaps why they deserve to be looked at as a top four team in college football.
Conclusion
Overall, Texas has a major uphill battle. First of all, Oklahoma State, TCU, and Kansas are all still on the schedule, who have a combined one-loss. The one loss comes from Kansas losing to TCU last weekend. Not to mention: Baylor, Kansas State and Iowa State are still on Texas’ schedule as well. That is a tough six game stretch to end the season, granted Texas does have a bye in week nine. Each team has its own quirk that will test and stress Texas in a different way.
If they make it through that stretch unscathed, I think they will have proven they’re a top four team in college football. However, winning out isn’t all that needs to happen for Texas to make their college football playoff debut.
The SEC and Big Ten must only send one team. Between the ACC and PAC-12, one of those conferences must also have a two or three loss conference champion.
A dream scenario for Texas would be:
- Texas winning the rest of their games in pretty convincing fashion, then winning the Big XII.
- The SEC championship loser to have two losses (solidifying the SEC only sending one team to the playoffs).
- One team out of the Big Ten going undefeated for the season (almost solidifying the B1G only sending one team to the playoffs).
- The ACC and/or PAC-12 having a 2-loss conference champion (Texas as a two loss conference champion will have a better case than anyone in the ACC or PAC-12).
Obviously there is a lot of football left to be played. However, with Quinn Ewers back for Texas, the actual ceiling for this team is a national championship. They are undoubtedly talented enough. The Alabama game proved that.
If Texas doesn’t make the college football playoffs this year, it will be “playoffs or bust” in 2023. That is the standard for a blue blood, like Texas.
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